It was a bullish month for equities, SPX +270pts (6.5%) to 4450, with the Transports +1820pts (13.3%) to 15529. WTIC climbed +$2.55 (3.7%) to $70.64. Copper gained +12cents (3.4%) to $3.76. The USD weakened by -166bps to DXY 102.59. The US 10yr yield climbed by +17bps to 3.81%.
SPX, monthly
The 7th month higher of 9, printing 4458, the highest since Apr’2022. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and will turn positive Monday July 3rd. I’d note the upper bollinger at 4740.
Trans, monthly
The 5th month higher of 9, printing 15581, the highest since February. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is due to turn positive next Monday. Upper bollinger resistance in the 16600s.
WTIC, monthly
WTIC printed $75.06, if cooling back to settle in the $70s. Momentum remains on the very low side. Any price action above the 10MA in $77s, would offer a run toward psy’ $100.
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Copper, monthly
An intra month high of $3.97, but cooling back to settle at $3.76. Momentum ticked lower, and remains moderately negative.
USD, monthly
June was a choppy, if net weaker month for the USD. However, the dollar is still comfortably holding above the psy’ 100 threshold. Momentum ticked lower, and is on the moderately low side.
Dollar bulls need to see a monthly close back above the key 10MA, currently in the 104s. Its certainly arguable that this years price action is just a floor building phase.
Whilst the USA has its problems, I see no reason to join the ‘dollar doom’ train. Indeed, the dollar doomers have nothing to tout unless the 2018 88s are taken out.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Yields climbed for a second consecutive month, with the US 10yr settling at 3.81%. Psy’ 4.00% is clearly important, but far more so… the March high of 4.08%. I’d note monthly momentum, as the rate of downside has leveled off to almost nothing, settling the month fractionally positive.
Broader structure is a giant bull flag. Any price action >4.10% would be decisive, and offer basic target of the upper bollinger, currently 4.70%, with secondary of psy’ 5.00%.
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Miscell’ things…
“We’re forecasting the end is going to come, when they start lowering interest rates… in the run up to the presidential reality show”.
Indeed, yours truly holds to the notion that the ultimate equity sell signal is a rate cut. As things are, rate hikes can be expected July 26th and Nov’1st. If I’m right, it would argue against Celente’s assertion that things will start to unravel in Q4.
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The weekend
A few days off is most welcome. I’ve sideline entertainment via the season’1 finale of ‘Silo’, and Hoffman Family Gold. I continue to be inspired by anything mining related.
I’ve a laundry list of things to do. If I can get at least 2 or 3 things completed, that’d be something. I have yet to begin a home search, and this hyper-procrastination is driving me somewhat crazy.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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*The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
*Twitter: I will endeavour to cover the end month individual stock settlements this weekend. If I’ve the time/energy, I’ll do them in sector batches, and take requests. Otherwise, a giant block Sunday evening.