It was a real mess of a Thursday in equity land, the SPX seeing morning upside to 4007, but then unraveling to 3919, and settling +0.3% to 3948. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$0.94 (1.3%) to $69.96.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: as things are, we’re net higher for the week by +32pts (0.8%). This weeks candle is spiky on the upper side, and reflective of bullish exhaustion from 4039. Weekly momentum is fractionally negative.
Primary target for the bears should be the Dec’ low of 3764.
The bulls have nothing to tout unless >4195.
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WTIC: oil was sig’ lower, not helped by the downside reversal in equities. Today’s candle is a hollow red reversal (if by a single cent) and leans s/t bullish, at least for part of Friday. M/t bearish to psy’ $50.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Durable goods orders, PMI serv’, PMI manu’.
Earnings: none.
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Final note
Heying and Weinstein on Aspirin and the Spanish Flu.
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Ms. Booth has annoyed me lately, but the issues raised are still valid.
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A subscriber noted the following to me…
Vornado Realty Trust, monthly, 20yr
The incredible thing is that its already nearing the 2009 collapse low, and that is with the main market still ‘broadly holding together’.
Are most of the REITS going to zero?
I’ve no position, and would be more inclined to focus on shorting the banks, not least via BAC and KRE.
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Those arguing against the mainstream/regime narrative are still getting blacklisted, and ‘de-banked’. This is only going to get far worse, once the CBDCs and social credit scores are rolled out.
No doubt, I’ll be kicked out of the system… sooner, rather than later. In which case… everything I do is arguably a complete waste of time.
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Glass half full, or rather shattered?
Today was one of the more annoying days so far this year.
Yesterday’s SPX daily bearish engulfing candle was highly suggestive we’d break a lower low. We did… but not until after a dumb bounce to 4007.
Yours truly saw a roughly 35% gain cut to around 5%, recovering to 19.5%, when I walked away in disgust, when sp’3974.
I guess it could have been worse.
I could be one of the maniacs who are still trying to buy into the bounces. For them, they have many… many months of horror ahead.
I’m struggling to make the really big gains, but then I’m not going to play weekly options. I want to sleep at night, and for that, I typically want 5-7 weeks on the detonator clock.
Anyway… as I try to tell others ‘All green exits are good exits’.
I should probably whine less.
Goodnight from London