Looking ahead

It was a bearish day in equity land, the SPX settled -1.5% to 3986. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$2.88 (3.6%) to $77.58.

sp’weekly1b

WTIC daily

Summary

SPX: a difficult Tuesday for stocks, as the market wasn’t placated by Powell. Weekly momentum continues to weaken, due to turn negative within 1-2 weeks.

S/t bullish… at least for 1-2 days. Friday’s employment data will arguably dictate whether the market can climb into next Tuesday’s CPI, or simply spiral ahead of it.

Best guess… I’m actually leaning bullish, before renewed downside, after March 14th.
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WTIC: printing $80.94, but swinging to $77.06, as today’s candle is bearish engulfing, and leans s/t bearish, at least for part of Wednesday. Today’s stronger dollar sure didn’t help.

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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see ADP jobs, JOLTs, intl’ trade, Fed Beige Book (2pm)

Earnings: CPB

Event: 10am EST – Powell, Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, to the US House.

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Final note

*the UK is not on the list, as we’re no longer part of the EU.
The UK’s ‘average excess death’ across 2020/22 was around +15%, although its currently around just +1%.

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For that alone, Elon is worth $8.00 a month.

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Full moon rising

Four for four

The Mon>Tuesday short from sp’4070 to 4020, provided a net gain of +23%, and I can’t complain about that.

This makes four trades… and yes, its a literal handful. I remain very ‘twitchy’, not least after getting whacked last Oct’.

As ever, now its onto the next trade. I’m starting to wonder if we can push into the 4100s… before resuming lower. Friday’s employment data will be a key variable. The cautious… will NOT be doing anything this side of Friday morning.

Goodnight from London