It was a mixed month for equities, SPX +139pts (3.5%) to 4109, with the R2K -4.8%. WTIC -$1.38 (1.8%) to $75.67. Natgas settled -53cents (19.3%) to $2.22. Copper climbed by +1cent to $4.09. The USD weakened by -264bps to DXY 102.19. The US 10yr yield declined by -44bps to 3.48%.
SPX, monthly
March negated the February declines. The March candle offers zero sign of a short or mid term ceiling/turn. The March settlement was decisively above the key 10MA (3940), as the bulls could argue the m/t trend from Oct’2022 is bullish. However, the last five months of price action are all pretty much range bound.
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R2K, monthly
A second month lower for the R2K, settling just under the key 10MA. Momentum has stopped recovering upward, as the stall below the key zero threshold bodes problematic for April. Much like other indexes, price action has been a broad chop-fest for some months.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil declined for the NINTH month of ten. Momentum is on the low side, but this could remain the case into/across the summer. Key supports… the lower bollinger $60, and then psy’ $50. The latter appears realistic if the main market is spooked on recessionary concerns.
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Natgas, monthly
Natgas cooled for the fifth month of seven, printing $2.07, the lowest since Sept’2020. A foray into the $1s appears a given.
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Copper, monthly
Copper printed $3.82, but recovered to settle one cent higher… notably above psy’ $4.00. Monthly momentum remains negative. I would still expect resumed downside to the mid/low $2s, on the notion of a US/global slowdown.
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USD, monthly
A difficult month for the dollar, with a clear reversal from the key 10MA. Momentum has turned negative for the first time since Aug’2021. The only positive is that the February low wasn’t broken under.
The concern should be if the Fed pause… or even cut rates, whilst other central banks continue to raise. On balance though, this shouldn’t be expected, as the CBs generally work together.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Bond yields cooled for the third month of five. Its still arguable that price structure is a big bull flag, threatening a grander run to 5.00%. S/t support 3.3%. I’d be surprised if <psy’ 3.00%.
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Dear Subscriber
Friday’s extreme case of window dressing was rather annoying. No doubt, the mainstream cheerleaders and ‘smart guys’ will be touting far higher levels for April/Q2. After all, everything is gonna be great, from here on, right?
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A third consecutive net weekly gain, as the H/S scenario remains valid. Bears sure could do with a reversal from around current levels, at least down to 4K… preferably next week.
Yours truly is holding short across the weekend. My entry is from 4068, which isn’t great, but at least its not from under 4K. I just need to be patient, and with May 19th PUTS… I can be.
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The weekend
I need considerable rest/recovery.
I’ve sideline entertainment via Gold Rush, and maybe a movie.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
re: Twitter. I’m not at all sure how much I will cover, but it will likely be considerable. As ever, if there is something you want me to highlight, let me know.