Good morning, and welcome to the Fall/Autumn US equity futures are significantly lower, SPX -48pts, we’re set to open at 3710. USD is +0.8% at DXY 112.09. The precious metals are very significantly lower, Gold -$26 (printing $1648), with Silver -2.9% (printing $18.99). WTIC is -3.5% in the $80s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yesterday opened weak, recovered into the late afternoon, but the closing hour saw a strong reversal, with the market settling broadly lower. S/t momentum ticked upward, if still on the moderately low side.
Overnight futures have been increasingly weak, especially impacted by weak European markets… lead by the economic/societal basket case of the UK.
We’re set to open around 3700, which is a massively important zone of support on the hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
The news is clearly going to worsen across the Fall.
At best… the bulls might manage a bounce… if only on ‘technical’ grounds.
At worse… the market just gaps under the June low on Monday, with a mini-crash to 3400/3200… before end month.
My guess is a bounce… but confidence is LOW.
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Early movers
AAPL -1.7%, to sponsor the Superbowl Halftime show
AG -4.2%, lower silver
ARKK -3.4%, in the $37s, as the May $35s are set to be lost.
ALB -2.7%
AMD -2.5%
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AMZN -1.8%
BBBY -4.1%, Wall… Street… Bets
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BCS -3.7%, spiraling UK financials
BHP -4.7%, lower copper
CCL -4.9%, sinking shippers, Hurricane Fiona isn’t helping.
CLF -3.3%
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COIN -4.2%
Bitcoin is -2.6% in the $18000s
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COST -3.3%, post earnings depression
CS -8.9%, collapsing EU financials
DB -4.8%
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DIS -1.9%
F -3.4%
FCX -4.8%, with copper -14cents to $3.32
FDX -3.0%, post earnings depression
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FUBO +2.0%, Wedbush upgrade
GOLD -2.9%
INTC -0.9%
META -1.4%
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MOS -2.9%
MRNA -2.3% in the $121s. Psy’ $100 is coming
NEM -2.8%
NVDA -2.5%
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OXY -3.5%
PAAS -4.2%, lower silver
PFE -1.1%
PYPL -2.4%
RIG -2.7%, contract for the ‘Norge’
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RIO -5.8%, lower copper
RUM -2.2%
SHEL -5.0%
SLB -3.3%
SPOT -2.6% in the $90s. Fair value is <$50
SQ -3.3%
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TLT -1.1%, lower bonds… as yields climb. I see a print of the $103s, which merits alarm bells, with a trap door to the 82s.
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TSLA -2.1%
UAL -1.9%
UNG -1.9%, with Natgas $7.15
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VIX +6% in the 29s
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X -3.5%
XOM -2.8%
ZM -2.0%
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Overnight markets
Asian markets were broadly lower, whilst European markets are very significantly lower…
Japan: CLOSED
China: -0.7% to 3088
South Korea: -1.8% to 2290
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Germany: currently -2.0% at 12274
UK: currently -2.0% at 7019
Here in the UK, there has been an emergency ‘budget’ announcement, detailing tax and spending changes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62920969
Truly bizarre is this…
‘What is eye-catching is that the chancellor has pledged to abolish the 45% additional rate of tax, which is paid by people who earn more than £150,000 a year, in April 2023. Instead the 40% higher rate, for earnings of over £50,270 will be the top rate. ‘
I can understand the sheep/serfs outraged at this…
This is a fat cats budget. A bankers budget. Where is the additional support for those already struggling? This isn’t a plan for growth, it’s a plan for economic catastrophe.
— Liz Jarvis (@LizJarvisUK) September 23, 2022
In a time of serious societal stress, the Truss Regime is cutting taxes for the upper tier, and offering the usual ‘crumbs’ to the lower tiers.
In any case, the package of measures is not helping the GBP.
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Yesterday the GBPUSD printed the 1.12s.
Overnight/early, has already seen a new multi-decade low of 110.72.
The recent loss of the 1.14s was massively important.
Parity… is coming.
I see the DXYs printing a new multi-decade high of the 112s in early trading. Natural target are the 120s. As ever… further strength in the USD isn’t going to help almost everything.
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Have a good Friday