It was a very bearish month for equities, SPX -369pts (9.3%) to 3585, with the Transports -1802pts (13.0%) to 12058. WTIC -$10.06 ( 11.2%) to $79.49. Copper -11cents (3.0%) to $3.41. The USD +342bps to DXY 112.08. The US 10yr yield +68bps to 3.83%.
SPX, monthly
It was an especially bearish end to the month, printing a new cycle low of 3594, the lowest since Nov’2020. Momentum ticked lower, and is on the extremely low side.
S/t prone to bouncing, if only to the mid 3800s. More broadly, psy’3K looks realistic late Oct/early Nov’. There is arguably a 25% probability of a crashy move, straight to the March 2020 low of 2191.
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Trans, monthly
It was the worse month for the Transports since March 2020. The Sept’ candle offers ZERO sign of a short or mid term floor. Its difficult not to see another 20% lower to around 10K by early Nov’.
WTIC, monthly
Oil fell for a fourth consecutive month, not helped by the weak equity market, and the broadly strong dollar. Momentum settled negative for the first time since Oct’2020. Having already printed the $76s, next support are the $66s, as seem an eventuality.
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Copper, monthly
Copper cooled for a sixth consecutive month, not helped by the weak equity market, and the broadly strong dollar. Momentum ticked lower, and is on the very low side. Next support is psy’ $3.00, and then the $2.50s.
USD, monthly
The dollar strengthened for the eighth month of nine, printing 114.75, the highest since May 2002. Big target are the 120s, as seem probable before year end.
US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield printed a new multi-year high of 3.99%, and settling at 3.83%. The monthly close >3.25% was decisive, and offers a grander target of psy’ 5.00%, last seen in July 2007.
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Dear Subscriber
The system is breaking. Whilst the s/t will always be ‘noisy’, the broader equity market is clearly headed far lower. Whether that is via a crashy move, or further ‘stair stepping’… is difficult to say.
It remains stunning to me that the BoE have already had to step in to prevent a systemic collapse in the UK. Perhaps even more stunning is seeing some of the ignorance and denial about this latest development, with some literally touting ‘everything is fine again’. The financial system is not fine, its breaking.
October, and the bulk of Q4 is set to see some ‘wild and crazy’ things happen. None of this assumes any wild cards, such as geo-political flare ups, such as via the Ukraine or China/Taiwan.
Watching Wapner on the ‘Closing Bell’ show this Friday, even the mainstream cheerleaders are starting to wonder if this is another 2008 scenario. Its certainly not 2008… its far worse.
Whether you want to cite the monstrously higher consumer, corporate, or governmental debt, or something else, unlike 2008, we’ve central banks raising rates into an economic and societal collapse wave.
Eventually of course… rates will be cut, and the printers spun up, as the political/bankster class try to reinflate asset prices without causing even higher inflation.
I have to note…. you know who this pleases most of all? The WEF. Such economic, and associated societal chaos is exactly what they need, in order to push their psychopathic Agenda 2030.
The dumb sheep will be more than willing to sign away their homes in order to receive their UBI (Universal Basic Income). That is just one element of the dark path we’re currently on.
Two key wild cards are whether a major war breaks out, or if the ‘excess deaths’ accelerate. Even if neither of those occur, the outlook for 2023 is kinda scary.
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The weekend
As ever, sixty hours of sleep is tempting, but I’ll endeavour to get a few personal projects done. I’ve sideline entertainment via Gold Rush and House of the Dragon. I’ve not seen any of the Lord of the Rings yet. Where would I get the time anyway?
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
re: Twitter. I’ve a truck load of end month individual stock settlements to cover, and will probably split them into two blocks, across Saturday and Sunday.