The weekend

US equities cooled into the weekend, the SPX settling -0.9% to 3961, although that still made for a net weekly gain of 98pts (2.5%). Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$1.65 (1.7%) to $94.70, which made for a net weekly decline of -$2.89 (3.0%).

sp’weekly1b

WTIC weekly

Summary

SPX: the third week higher of five, with a new cycle high of 4012. Weekly momentum ticked upward and is due to turn positive next Monday. To be clear… post fed/GDP washout, but then another wave higher, with prime target of green zone by late August/early Sept’

WTIC: the fifth weekly decline of six. A third consecutive net daily decline, if still managing to settle above the 200dma ($93.92). Today’s perform’ is worse when you consider the weaker dollar. S/t vulnerable with the main market… especially with Thursday’s recessionary GDP data, but I do expect the 50dma (currently $108s) to be challenged, if not until mid August.
—

Dear Subscriber

… and that concludes another week at the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino. Congratulations to the survivors. Some perspective…


With just five trading days left of July, the SPX is currently +176pts (4.7%) at 3961.

The June low of 3636 appears secure into late September. Big upside target is the monthly 10MA (4336), which will adjust to around 4300/4275 as of August 1st.

My guess is we see a failure to clear multiple technicals in August/Sept’, from within the 4200/300s. Any such failure would threaten a crash wave in Q4. Whether we get a grand back test of the old 2000/2007 double top of the 1500s… difficult to say.

However, I am pretty confident we’ll test the March 2020 low of 2191.
If correct, if will offer massive opportunity on the short side, with eventual ‘bargain buys’.

–

Miscell things’.

Dore calling out the mainstream media hacks, who are still trying to control the discussion of C19 and related matters. The utter irony is that the headlines say the opposite to what the related articles discuss! Its kinda incredible.
–

I like Gold AND Silver, but the latter will especially be smashed lower, if there is a main market crash in Q4. If correct, bearish implications for the related miners.

I’ll continue to watch, and occasionally highlight the ‘gold chatter’, but for now… gold, silver, and the related miners are m/t bearish with the main market.

–

The weekend

For once, I don’t feel completely exhausted, and I hope to get a few personal projects done this weekend. I’ve sideline entertainment via Gold Rush, and Westworld.

As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.

Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London

yours… Philip
—

The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts)

Twitter: I will likely take Saturday ‘light’, but I will have much to cover on Sunday evening, as next week’s market schedule is wildly overloaded.