It was a very bullish month for equities, SPX +344pts (9.1%) to 4130, with the Transports +1452pts (11.0%) to 14609. WTIC cooled by -$7.14 (6.7%) to $98.62. Copper fell -14cents (3.7%) to $3.57. The USD strengthened by +132bps to DXY 105.78. The US 10yr yield settled -31bps to 2.67%.
SPX, monthly
A very powerful net July gain of 344pts (9.1%) to 4130, fully confirming 3636 was a key short/mid term floor. A fourth consecutive settlement under the 10MA, and I thus still see the m/t trend as bearish. Monthly momentum is flat-lining on the extremely low side. Aug’/early Sept’ will very likely offer a test of the 10MA in the 4300s where we should get stuck.
Trans, monthly
A very powerful net monthly gain of +11.0%, yet still below first upside resistance of the 10MA.
WTIC, monthly
A second consecutive monthly decline for oil, as momentum is cooling off. I’d note the July low of $90.56, as oil still settled above first support of the 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as remaining bullish.
Copper, monthly
A fourth consecutive net monthly decline, with copper printing a spike low of $3.13. Monthly momentum is showing no sign of a m/t floor. Worse case for the bulls would (ironically) be s/t upside to old support (now resistance) of psy’ $4.00, and then failing.
USD, monthly
The dollar broke a new multi-decade high of DXY 109.14. Despite cooling to settle in the 105s, the m/t trend remains absolutely bullish. Further, whilst the July candle is spiky on the upper side (indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion), anyone getting overly bearish should keep in mind July printed yet another higher high and higher low.
Even multi-month cooling to around the DXY 100 threshold would not cancel this year’s massive decisive breakout, after an EIGHT year trading range was concluded.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
July’s close of 2.67%, gives extra confidence that June saw a key m/t high of 3.49%. Whilst many expect the Fed to broadly raise rates into 2023, I remain a skeptic. That view would be dropped if the US 10yr can break AND hold >3.25%.
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Miscell things’…
Dore on Pelosi’s increasingly anticipated trip to Taiwan.
Since last evening’s show, we’ve this…
It doesn’t matter what you think of Pelosi, that tweet from an effective spokesman of the CCP is beyond astounding. I have to wonder whether Pelosi will still go? I guess we might find out this weekend.
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The Celente… as mad as ever, calling out the insanity on planet Krazy. I fully understand if this guy is ‘too much’ for some of you. Hell, there are times I can’t deal with it… but he ain’t wrong.
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‘Computing Forever’… aka… the Irish guy, whom I used to regularly highlight in 2020/21.
With most of the restrictions lifted, he has traveled from Ireland to Poland. Its an interesting video/commentary. On one level… its tragically sad, as European culture has been decimated by both mass (largely illegal) immigration, but also a collapse in the birth rate.
The cold, dark, and (if only via higher costs)… hunger, of Winter 2022/23 will probably see the populace the most stressed they’ve been since WWII.
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The weekend
There remains so much to do, but sixty hours of sleep is the most attractive option. I’ve sideline entertainment via Gold Rush, and the wondrous Westworld.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
re: TWTR. I’ve the end month individual stock settlements to cover. I’m not sure if I’ll go ‘all out’ across the weekend, or just highlight a block on Sunday evening.