Month: May 2022

Bits and pieces to wrap up May

It was a net bearish month for US equities, SPX +0.2pts (0.01%) to 4132, with the Transports -563pts (3.8%) to 14301. WTIC soared +$9.98 (9.5%) to $114.67. Copper cooled by -11cents (2.5%) to $4.30. The USD weakened by -120bps to DXY 101.77. The US 10yr yield -4bps to 2.85%.

SPX, monthly


Printing a new cycle low of 3810, if recovering to settle effectively u/c. Momentum is increasingly negative. The May settlement was decisively under the monthly 10MA, and the m/t trend has to be seen as bearish. I’d note the lower bollinger at 3427, and that will adjust/jump to around 3500 as of Wed’ June 1st.

Trans, monthly


The fifth net monthly decline of seven. Momentum is increasingly negative. The May settlement was under the 10MA. I’d note the lower bollinger in the 11500s. Sustained high oil/fuel prices are going to hit the transports sector the hardest into/across the summer.

WTIC, monthly


A sixth consecutive net monthly gain. I’d especially note how psy’ $100 is acting as new short/mid term support. A challenge of the March $130s appears due within June/July. Secondary target remain the 2008 historic $147s. Every dollar higher will merely accelerate the weakening of the US/global consumer.

Copper, monthly


Copper printed $4.04, if recovering to settle at $4.30. Momentum continued to weaken, if still only marginally negative. An eventual loss of psy’ $4 appears inevitable, and would offer psy’ $3. If correct, that sure won’t help the related miners (which includes Barrick Gold).

USD, monthly


The king of FIAT land printed 105.77, but cooled into end month, settling in the DXY 101s. Again… one month of cooling does not negate a m/t bullish trend. Dollar bulls should note support of psy’100, and the 10MA – currently 96s, and that will have climbed to around 100 by July.

The concern has to be if the US Fed ‘back off’, but the European, and (at least some) other central banks continue to raise rates. Were that to happen… the dollar would broadly fall into 2023.
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US 10yr yield, monthly


The US 10yr yield printed 3.12%, if cooling back to settle at 2.85%. Momentum still ticked upward, and is on the very high side. One month of net cooling does not negate the m/t bullish trend.

The Fed appear set to raise rates by 50bps at the FOMCs of June 15th and July 27th. However… that seems all we’re going to see with the Fed set to ‘back off’ at the September meeting.

The excuse from Print Central is pretty obvious… they’ll argue that the recessionary pressures on employment are a bigger problem than inflation. How ‘everyone’ reacts to that kind of comment will be entertaining to see.

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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see PMI/ISM manu’, JOLTS, construction, Fed Beige book, vehicle sales.

Earnings: CPRI, GME, CHWY, HPE

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Final note

Around 40% of US Adult Children Live with Parents

The implications are many, not least fewer relationships/marriage, with a subsequent lower birth rate. Demographics remain the ultimate issue for a society/species, and one that few want to talk about, not least in Japan, Europe, and increasingly… North America.
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Dore with a pretty good summary on the situation in Ukraine, as Russia holds almost everything it might want.

I recognise it doesn’t please everyone, but the fact remains… this mess stretches back to 2014… a peace agreement which the west of Ukraine failed to comply with, even launching attacks that killed around 14000 in the east across eight years.

Hopefully… this is resolved at some point, although many European states appear aching for a protracted conflict, if only to divert the attention of the soon to be cold and hungry sheep.

At some point… China is going to make its move on Taiwan. Will it act before the mid terms…. or until (as I see it), the Republicans take the house and the senate?  If you’re China… what would you do?
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Miscell’ chatter from Alaska Prepper.
I continue to see the ‘window of opportunity’ closing late Sept’.

Along with another freezer, I’d really like at least one of those 3600watt Ecoflow Delta Pro battery packs, as the UK is increasingly due blackouts.

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I was pretty happy with that one.

Goodnight from London

Yours… proceeding into June