Equities failed to hold early significant gains, the SPX swinging from 4512 to 4384, and settling -1.5% to 4493. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$1.60 (1.6%) to $103.79.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: As things are, we’re effectively u/c for the week. I’d note weekly momentum which remains negative. I’m still inclined to see another push upward to burn off cyclically low conditions.
The risk is AGAINST the bulls, as the US/global economy is slowing, especially due to the increasingly cash-strapped consumer. NFLX is a leading example, and there will many more to come in the coming weeks.
WTIC: oil saw considerable chop, if leaning on the upward side… which was impressive considering the main market. Underlying geo-political concerns – with associated sanctions, are the grander concern into the summer. A push above the March $130s still seems probable.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see PMI manu’, PMI serv’
Earnings: CLF, VZ, SLB, AXP, NEM, KMB, HCA
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PF chart of the day
Computer is seeking the $138s… which look realistic in June/July. Clearly, any further increase in WTIC and/or Nat’ gas prices isn’t going to help the global consumer.
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Final note
There are elements within the UK admin’ that want war… if only to take the population’s attention off the fact that the standard of living is in literal CRASH MODE.
As I’ll continue to say across the summer, the UK is on the leading edge of an increasingly cash-strapped global consumer. The winter of 2022/23 is going to be hellish for many, as they will NOT be able to afford heating. This is clearly a bigger problem for the old… but still, even some ‘normal families’ will be financially be unable to afford to warm their homes.
The political hacks, some of which are inherently blood thirsty, see a war as the obvious strategy to take the country into 2023.
When China invades Taiwan – as seems due late 2022/early 2023, it’ll be fascinating to see how the various western governments react. Will they respond at all?
If you’re no fan of the Dore… that is fine. He annoys me at times, but still… the issues raised are massively important.
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Always superb, Heyling and Weinstein, on Elon and Twitter.
Goodnight from London