Month: April 2022

Bits and pieces to wrap up April

It was a severely bearish month for equities, SPX -398pts (8.8%) to 4131, with the Nasdaq comp’ -1885pts (13.3%) to 12334. WTIC gained +$4.41 (4.4%) to $104.69. Copper cooled by -34 cents (7.2%) to $4.41.  The USD strengthened by +460bps to DXY 102.96. The US 10yr yield climbed by +57bps to 2.89%.

SPX, monthly

First, this was a close back under the 10MA, and thus a bearish monthly settlement. I’d note the lower bollinger at 3308, which is viable as early as May. Momentum is sustainably negative, and set to be increasingly negative in May, and further June.

Nasdaq comp’, monthly

The Nasdaq has been leading the entire US equity market down since it peaked in November 2021. This was the fourth consecutive month under the 10MA. Indeed, note how the market just can’t re-take the 10MA. Momentum is powerfully negative. Note the lower bollinger at 11063, which is prime target for May/June. A H/S formation threatens 9k.

WTIC, monthly


April’s settlement was the highest since June 2014. Momentum is on the high side, but other than the March hyper spike, there is no real sign of a m/t ceiling/turn.

Whilst the US/global economy is slowing, the threat is of another geo-political scare, whether Russia/Ukraine, or from China/Taiwan. The latter does seem an increasingly high probability late 2022/early 2023.

Copper, monthly


A rough month for copper, with momentum turning fractionally negative. Alarm bells with ANY price action <psy’ $4.00, as seems an eventuality. From there… natural target $3.00. If correct, that won’t help FCX, TECK, SCCO, and to a lesser extent, many of the gold/silver miners.

USD, monthly

The King of FIAT land climbed for a fourth consecutive month, printing 103.95, the highest since Dec’2002 ! Momentum is on the high side, but there is zero sign of a ceiling/turn. Any price action >104.00 would be decisive, and offer a run to around 120.

US 10yr yield, monthly


Bond yields climbed for the 8th month of 9. Psy’ 3.00% is due in May, with secondary of 3.25%.

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Dear Subscriber

It was an ugly end to an ugly month. I’m surprised Wednesday’s low of 4162 failed to hold, although the Nasdaq and R2K have been suggestive other indexes would break new lows.

Of all the things I’ve posted in the past week, or even the month, this is probably the most useful, and provoking…

The GDP print was lousy, and Friday’s Chicago PMI print isn’t far from also meriting recessionary alarm bells. Considering ‘everything’, a recession seems a given… having ALREADY begun in Q1.

If you agree with that, then the next issue should be…. will the Fed back off rate hikes? Whilst I’m guessing we’ll see hikes May 4th and June 15th, rate hike’4 looks increasingly doubtful.

By late June/early July, we should be printing the sp’3500s… if not a little lower, and we’ll have the mainstream cheerleaders crying, and demanding the fed back off. Based on the past fifteen years of Fed policy/action, I have to guess the Fed will do as they’re told.

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The weekend

Its been an exceptionally busy week and month. I’m exhausted. I hope to get at least one personal project done this weekend, namely install an SSD in my laptop. Its not a priority though, and I might just decide to sleep for the next sixty hours.

As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.

Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London

yours… Philip
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*The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.

**As for Twitter, I will endeavour to cover as many of the end month individual stock settlements as I can manage.