Month: March 2022

Looking ahead

It was a messy day in equity land, the SPX printing 4276, but settling -30pts (0.7%) to 4170. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$4.30 (3.6%) to $123.70.

sp’weekly1b

WTIC daily

Summary

SPX: We’re already net lower for the week by -158pts (3.6%), and that is before the inflation data! The bears have prime opportunity to take out 4K, which is where the mainstream would start to panic.

WTIC: oil climbed for the 10th day of 12. It is notable that both the Monday and Tuesday candles are very spiky, which is indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion.

However, as I’ve said for months, the notion of being short anything energy related (even briefly) is arguably crazy, not least with regular overnight giant gaps higher on sporadic ‘spooky news’.

The next threat is that we decisively clear the July 2008 $147s, and push onward to $200. Yes… that’d sure be an economic shock wave, and then we’d see a monster truckload of economic and earnings downgrades into the summer… which would pressure the main market lower into May/June.

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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see JOLTS, EIA Pet’

Earnings: ZIM, CPB, CRWD, FNV

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PF charts of the day

Computer is seeking the $2339s. My natural target is the 2400/2500 zone.

Computer is seeking the $37s.. which seems realistic within 3-4mths.


My natural target (above Psy’30) would be the $35-37 zone, back to levels in 2012… which is (disturbingly)… a decade ago! Note that monthly momentum should turn positive within April/May.

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Final note

Always superb chatter from Heyling and Weinstein. Indeed, sometimes… whilst you might have worked hard, that doesn’t mean you achieved anything particularly useful.

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Its always interesting to see comments from leading figures from a few decades ago. Here, Biden lays it out… clear as crystal.  As Dore notes, none of the mainstream are talking about this.
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$7.80 gasoline, as the $8s are clearly due. The UK driver/consumer is going to be under severe pressure into, and across the spring.

Worse… April will see electric/Nat’gas utility prices will adjust +54% for most consumers. This October, I’d have to expect a further 20/30%. For some millions, from autumn 2022 onward, heating a home will no longer be feasible.

The economists will call it ‘a mid/long term economic drag’. For those experiencing it… it will be just plain horrible, with little realistic hope that things will get any better in 2023.
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Ohh, and yes I’m wondering how my civil case turned out. I should find out within the next few days. I’d be fine with anything >$2000, >$4k would be a bonus. From there… well, I’ve case’2 to deal with!

Goodnight from London