US equities saw choppy upside, the SPX settling +37pts (0.8%) to 4521. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$1.96 (2.1%) to $89.36.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: Bulls can tout ‘hey… we’re net higher for a third week’. Bears can say ‘Yeah… that is true, but this market is unquestionably short/mid term broken’. It is the case that bounces are to be seen as such, unless we’re trading (to be decisive >4650).
Frankly, I have to expect 4222 to be tested, whether into end month or early March. It won’t take anything ‘spooky’ via Russia/Ukraine. It’ll merely take weekly/monthly momentum, which increasingly favour the bears.
None of this merits any use of the ‘crash’ word, but I’m certainly cautious, focusing on very short term ‘hit and runs’ on just a few select stocks that I feel comfortable to meddle in. I sure don’t feel its okay to be 100% long right now, and as I type… all I’m holding is my quintet of gold/silver miners, and around 75% cash.
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WTIC: oil fell for a second day, printing $88.51. Momentum ticked lower, set to turn negative on Wednesday. A daily close under the 10MA will offer a grander drop to the 50dma… currently in the $77s, and set to climb to around psy’ $80 next week. If correct, the energy stocks aren’t going to do well across the next handful of days.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see Wholesale invent’, EIA pet’
Earnings: CVS, CGC, TEVA, YUM, CCJ, DIS, UBER, TWLO, ZNGA, MAT, SONO, MGM, IRBT, LUMN
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PF chart of the day
Computer is seeking 31.0, aka… the US 10yr yield to 3.10%.
TNX, daily, 3yr
Today saw TNX settle at 19.54… aka… the US 10yr yield 1.954%. As I’ve said for a long time… rather than psy’ 2.00%, a more natural target is 2.25%… which Gundlach also touted last year. Gundlach is due on Wednesday’s CNBC lunchtime show, and that will merit attention.
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Final note
Dore on the recent fury at GofundMe, who capitulated to the Canadian regime, who pressured them to cancel the campaign to raise funds for the truckers.
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Always superb from Heyling and Weinstein, with chatter on the truckers. Indeed, Soy Trudeau has swung from praising the truckers for bringing food/essentials, to calling them a ‘fringe minority’ and refusing to meet with them.
I’m aware of background chatter that ‘Trudeau will soon be ousted’. I wish I could be that hopeful.
*The blog post cited by Heyling…
HIGHLY recommended.
Goodnight from London