It was a bearish month for equities, SPX -141pts (3.1%) to 4373, with the Nasdaq comp’ -488pts (3.4%) to 13751. WTIC gained +$7.57 (8.6%) to $95.72. Copper climbed +13 cents (3.0%) to $4.45. The USD strengthened by +16bps to DXY 96.69. The US 10yr yield gained +4bps to 1.83%.
SPX, monthly
Nasdaq, monthly
WTIC, monthly
Copper, monthly
USD, monthly
US 10yr yield, monthly
Summary
Equities: the SPX has followed the Nasdaq comp’, with a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA. The door has formally opened to natural target of the lower monthly bollinger, currently in the 3100s. The setup for March is outright bearish, as monthly momentum in all six of the US indexes should be sustainably negative into April.
WTIC: February printed $100.54, the highest since July 2014. Next resistance is the 120/125 zone, which (considering Russia/Ukraine) appears realistic within March.
Copper: printing $4.71, but cooling back to $4.45, leaving February’s candle rather spiky on the upper side, which leans s/t bearish. For metals, I have to favour Gold in the s/t, which will better capture a ‘fear bid’, than silver or copper.
USD: a minor net February gain. Most notable is that King dollar is still putting in higher highs and higher lows. Broadly… its year EIGHT of a trading range 88>103s.
Bond yields: higher for the sixth month of seven, printing a new cycle high of 2.05%. I’d note how February’s candle is spiky from the upper bollinger. Next target is 2.25%, with secondary of psy’ 3.00%. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the next CPI print… due next week (I think), which should see headline y/y inflation near/above 8.0%.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see PMI/ISM manu’, construction
Earnings: TGT, SE, BIDU, DPZ, WKHS, KSS, UWMC, SOFI, AMC, PLUG, CRM, WISH, BROS, JWN
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A good day to end a good month
Yours truly had a good Monday, for what has been a good February. I’m seizing gains where I can get them. I’m feeling more confident to trade options again, although I’m still pretty twitchy about anything SPY PUT or VIX CALL related.
Instead, I’m more comfortable buying anything oil or gold related, whether option CALLS, or just various energy or gold stocks. This remains my plan for March, and into the spring.
Goodnight from London
Yours… will need to be up at 3.30am EST for the UPS courier. Joy.