It was an ugly end to an ugly week, the SPX settling -84pts (1.9%) to 4397, which made for a net weekly decline of -264pts (5.7%). Meanwhile, WTIC settled -41cents (0.5%) to $85.14, which made for a net weekly gain of +$1.32 (1.6%).
sp’weekly2
WTIC weekly
Summary
SPX: a third consecutive net weekly decline. Momentum is increasingly negative. Lower weekly bollinger is next support at 4323. Any weekly close under the lower bol’ would offer psy’4000/3800 zone. The 38% fib’ of March 2020>Jan’2022 is 3815.
Considering the Nasdaq comp’ – where monthly momentum has already turned negative, and the R2K – open air to the 1660s or so, the sp’3800s are a valid target.
WTIC: oil cooled for a second day, but that still made for a fifth consecutive net weekly gain, having printed a multi-year high of $87.10. I have to see oil as s/t over-stretched, and vulnerable to cooling to around $75.
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Dear Subscriber
Some perspective…
We’re fourteen trading days into the year, with the SPX currently net lower by -368pts (7.7%) at 4397. The January candle is ‘bearish engulfing’, and is distinctly bearish… as was Feb’2020.
I would note the 10MA at 4424, which we’ve settled (at least this week) beneath. Monthly momentum is weakening, and threatens to turn negative as of Feb’1st. I’m frankly… spooked.
My ‘buy them back’ targets remain….
FCX, LAC, UEC
OXY, SLB, RIG, KMI
X, CLF
BAC, MOS, CFVI
Some of them are already at very attractive levels, but there is simply no sign of a s/t floor/turn, never mind that the bigger weekly/monthly charts are threatening something far more problematic.
Q. Has the grand ramp from March 2020 to Jan’2022 concluded?
Technically… we have a fair few ‘decisive breaks’, and the cautious will be waiting for both a clear turn, but also a couple of re-takes of support, such as the 200 day MA, and the monthly 10MA.
For the record, I see little reason to be buying/adding anything unless we get some kind of capitulation washout, with an associated VIX hyper spike. Key market floors don’t always end that clearly, but its something to watch.
Ohh, and to be clear, I still don’t fear rate hikes. Am I supposed to get hysterical about rates of perhaps 1.5% by end 2022/early 2023?
Wild cards… Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, and the Fed/Powell. The latter are due next week, and if they start to back away from spooling down the printers or future hikes… that should actually be seen as a negative.
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Miscell’ things…
Heyling and Weinstein… superb as ever.
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As I was hoping, Dore has posted the segment on views toward the unvaxxed…
On any basis… its profoundly disturbing, but not surprising, as we’re dealing with a broadly psychotic populace. The mid/long term implications if this psychotic group* are ‘still around’ much beyond 2025… are horrifying.
*special note to the ‘new people’, I would hope most of you are aware I’m actually apolitical, not least as I’m on the wrong side of the Atlantic. I will take issue with anyone – whatever side of the political aisle they see themselves as, who want to fine, jail, or take away children, on the basis of vax status.
**Ohh, and further… whilst Jimmy Dore is against ALL the mandates, he chose to take shots 1 and 2 of Moderna. The second (April 2021) left him seriously ill, and he is still recovering.
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I don’t agree with all of it, but I will certainly always support having reserves of just about anything. Yours truly is looking to pick up some extra things into the spring, everything from paper, a new laptop, battery packs, to maintaining a significant food reserve.
The supply chain remains fractured, with many companies having lost some of the most productive and talented workers, not least the ‘John Galts’, who have walked away… never to return.
Whilst I don’t have a time machine, much like Jan’2020, I’m rather concerned. If nothing happens, and things improve…. great. If the economy instead unravels, at least I’ll have a considerable buffer before having to worry.
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The weekend
Yours truly is exhausted, but I have much to do.
I paid my court hearing fee* a few days ago, now I just need to finalise my statement/presentation. Its proving to be quite overwhelming at times. Its not ‘legally difficult’, its just the amount of stuff I’m having to put together, as I’m running the case myself.
*for you new people, I’m suing my landlord, and their garbage heating contractor, $7500 each. The cases are sure-fire winners, and will help pay for some extra shares of OXY, SLB, RIG, and KMI 😉
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As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).
*I will be Twitter ‘light’ this weekend, but will take a look ahead to earnings Sunday evening.