Good morning. US equity futures are significantly lower, SPX -60pts, we’re set to open at 4350. USD is +0.4% at DXY 96.26. The precious metals are leaning weak, Gold -$3, with Silver -0.9%. WTIC is -0.5% in the $83s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yesterday saw powerful downside to break a new multi-month low of 4222. However, there was an equally powerful latter day recovery, even settling a little higher. S/t momentum settled fractionally negative.
Overnight futures have seen some strong swings, but generally leaning on the weaker side. We’re set to open significantly lower, but I would note the s/t cyclical setup does favour the bulls. There will be threat of another swing upward from 11am onward.
Whilst yesterday saw many stocks settled with reversal candles or even net positive, they are ALL still s/t broken.
I’ve two major concerns…
– the Fed
– Russia/Ukraine
The first is an immediate issue. The fed have to act against rising inflation… even if the economy is slowing.
The geo-political issue of Russia/Ukraine appears more of a problem once the Winter Olympics (Feb’4-20th) are out of the way. There is considerable chatter that Russia won’t make any moves until the games are done. There is also talk that Russia has an agreement with China, as the situation with Taiwan is somewhat similar.
In any case… we have to expect further massive intraday swings, if still leaning lower, as weekly AND monthly momentum are increasingly favouring the bears.
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Early movers
AAPL -2%
AMD -3%
AXP +2%, post earnings jump
CCL -2%
CFVI -2%
CLF -3%
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COIN -3%
Bitcoin is -0.2% in the $36000s. We’ve a provisional spike floor from the $33000s, but still… it looks very vulnerable.
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DIS -2%
F -2%
FCX -2.5%, with copper u/c at $4.40
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FUBO -5%
GDX -1%
HOOD -4%
IBM +1.5%, post earnings jump
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LOGI +5%, post earnings jump
MMM +2.0%, post earnings jump
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MRNA -1%
MSFT -1%… earnings due in AH
MU -2%
NFLX -2.5%
NVAX -4%
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NVDA -4%
OXY -2%… as the stock/sector is vulnerable, with WTIC inclined <80.
PTON -2%
PYPL -2%
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RIVN -4.5%
SLB-1%
SQ -4%
TSLA -3%
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TLT -0.2%, with yields a little higher
TLRY -4%
TWTR -2%
UAL -1.5%
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VIX +10% in the 33s
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X -2%
XOM -1%
ZM -2.4%… the m/t horror continues
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Overnight markets
Asian markets were very significantly lower, whilst European markets are catching a bounce…
Japan: -1.7% to 27131
China: -2.6% to 3433
Germany: currently +0.5% at 15090
UK: currently +0.9% at 7363
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Something to consider…
The collapse wave of Feb>March 2020
More than anything, note the VERY powerful rebounds within the downward trend, with a number of hollow red reversal candles, bullish engulfing candles, and giant gap ups and downs. I’d note how the daily 10MA held as resistance, and that momentum stayed negative until March 26th.
Further, March 2020 saw the SPX put in a spike floor from the lower monthly bollinger. Today, that technical is around 3000, and indeed… that is a very long way down.
First things first… lets see if 4000/3800, before a rebound into/across early/mid Feb’. I’d be mindful that until monthly momentum levels out… 3k is a threat.
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In the land of yours truly…
I was awoken at 9am GMT…. aka… 4am EST. Not great, with some days of work to go. It is surprising they no longer use pipes, and instead just lay the cables in a trench. Anyway… it’ll be good to have the option to have cable internet/TV.
Have a good Tuesday