US equities bounced ahead of CPI-Wednesday, the SPX settling +42pts (0.9%) to 4713.07. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$2.99 (3.8%) to $81.22.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: As things are, we’re back above the weekly 10MA, but momentum is still weaker than last week. Wednesday’s inflation data will clearly be a key variable as to whether we continue upward, or whether the market takes another swing lower.
The market is s/t cyclically over-stretched, as the setup favour the bears for Wednesday. S/t price structure threatens a bear flag. To fully confirm it… we need to take out the Monday low of 4582, and looks more realistic on Thursday.
Further, I’d keep in mind first major support of the monthly 10MA – currently 4455. Alarm bells if January settles under the latter, but I do NOT expect it.
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WTIC: oil climbed with the main market, breaking a new multi-week high of $81.59. RSI 66s is high, but we’re technically not yet overbought on the daily cycle. Today’s weaker dollar certainly helped.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the latest CPI data. Market consensus is for headline CPI y/y 7.1% vs 6.8% prior, and ex food/energy y/y 5.4% vs 4.9% prior. Arguably, anything above 7.3% and 5.5% respectively would be seen as ‘overly hot’, and duly upset the equity/capital markets.
Other data: US T-budget, EIA Pet’, Fed beige book (2pm)
Earnings: JEF, SJR, KBH, VOLT
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PF charts of the day
Computer holds a bullish target of $39.50.
Computer holds a bullish target of $48.
It was a rough day for both Cleveland Cliffs and US Steel, impacted by Wolfe Research downgrading the sector. I consider the call nonsensical. Lebenthal holds CLF as his ‘pick of the year’, and I can’t disagree. Today’s downside was certainly pleasing to see, as I need to buy them both back.
The current prices are both reasonable, but if the main market takes another swing lower… whether Wednesday or Thursday, both should be net lower to some degree.
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Final note
An incredible picture.
I remember, do you?
Fauci was causing problems back in the 80s.
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I'd refer you to the movie: Dallas Buyers Club (2013) https://t.co/rhnOm0ofpu— Philip Calrissian (@Trading_Sunset) January 11, 2022
If you’ve not seen Dallas Buyers Club… well, its a superb, but very difficult movie to watch. It shows a bigoted government and corrupt big pharma’, and who was involved in that shameful situation… ohh yeah… the Fauci.
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Superb as ever from Heyling and Weinstein.
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Hiltzik is the epitome of the retarded and morally corrupt mainstream media hacks. His publication is (probably) part funded by big pharma', or govt' money for promoting 'the narrative'.
Keep taking the shots, as you and the rest of the sheep are in for a surprise! #culltheherd https://t.co/ZB7VJ3m1cv
— Philip Calrissian (@Trading_Sunset) January 11, 2022
Pretty incredible, as the LA Times are running an article that basically says its okay to dance on the graves of the ‘unvaxxed’. These are the same woke lunatics who try to claim they have the moral high ground.
No. They do not. In fact, they are indeed exactly as I’ve seen all along, they are filth, with no love of freedom, or respect for others. I have zero qualms when I hope they are the ones who are ‘culled’ via their own stupid shortsightedness on the lack of longitudinal data.
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Here is the full Rand Paul vs. Dr. Fauci exchange.
Rand Paul turns Dr. Fauci into a hot mess. pic.twitter.com/Daq9Wr7KCR
— Caleb Hull (@CalebJHull) January 11, 2022
I don’t care if Rand Paul annoys you or not. As with everything else I highlight, I merely hope you question EVERYTHING he says, and the same of course applies to his nemesis… the Fauci.
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I like Morgan, he is pretty balanced about things, and he is right in that were equities to crash, gold/silver would also be hit (if briefly). I do still consider silver the most bizarrely undervalued commodity, with Uranium and Lithium a close second.
Goodnight from London
Yours… hoping for a screen of red boxes on CPI-Wednesday.