It was a very dynamic end to the equity week, the SPX printing an early low of 4292, but settling +105pts (2.4%) to 4431, making for a net weekly gain of +33pts (0.8%). Meanwhile, WTIC settled +21cents (0.2%) to $86.82, which made for a net weekly gain of +$1.68 (2.0%).
sp’weekly1b
WTIC weekly
Summary
SPX: A (rather surprising) net weekly gain, if only a moderate +0.8%. Bears can tout a lower high and lower low… still under the 10MA. Bulls could argue we have a s/t spike floor from 4222. Momentum is showing ZERO sign of a floor/turn.
If the market can’t keep pushing upward, the next swing lower threatens psy’4K, and I’d note secondary of the 38% fib’ of 3815. I’d accept the latter is borderline ‘crazy talk’, but a number of individual stocks are indirectly suggestive of far lower levels in February.
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WTIC: oil broke a new cycle high of $88.84, although the daily candle settled black, with (daily) momentum prone to turning negative within 1-3 days. A sixth consecutive net weekly gain, which is more impressive, when you consider the stronger dollar.
Oil – and the related energy stocks, remain s/t vulnerable with the main market, but broadly… giant psy’ $100 looks on track by mid year. There is increasing mainstream chatter of the $120s, and the 2008 hist’ high of the $147s.
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Dear Subscriber (or guest!)
… and that concludes another week at the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino. Congratulations to the survivors!
Some perspective…
With just one trading day left of January, the SPX is currently -334pts (7.0%) at 4431. The January candle remains bearish engulfing (under the Dec’2021 low of 4495), and bodes bearish for February.
I’d note the 10MA at 4427, which we might still settle below. Monthly momentum is prone to turning negative at the Tuesday Feb’1st open.
I’d keep in mind the Nasdaq comp’ and R2K, which have already seen monthly momentum turn negative, and both merit alarm bells. The SPX and the rest of the market could be expected to follow.
If the main market does see further powerful downside across February, the Fed are going to be under extreme pressure to postpone rate hikes. That won’t be easy though if headline CPI is near/above 8.0%.
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Miscell’ C19 chatter…
Always superb, from Heyling and Weinstein. Highly recommended, if a very depressing issue.
It should be clear to most of you that the majority of the population have long since turned psychotic, and whilst some had always abused their own children to some extent, now its become normalised. To not want to ‘mask the child’ is seen as abuse by the majority. That is how far the society/species has devolved in less than two years.
I have zero realistic hope that more than a fifth of the psychotics have any hope of recovery to their original mindset. These abused and traumatised children will be one of the most twisted and distorted generations we’ve ever seen. Few want to hear it. Even less want to think about the long term societal and economic implications.
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The Celente… aka… Mr ‘mad as hell’. I don’t agree with all of it, but the sentiment is valid.
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The weekend
It has been a crazy busy week. I’m exhausted… as my sleep has been wrecked, regularly awoken at 3am EST by the guys drilling trenches through concrete, and laying cable.
I need considerable rest, but there is much to do, not least taking my new laptop out of the box!
I see Netflix has a new Korean series ‘All of us are Dead’, not that I will have the time to watch all 12 episodes this weekend. Ohh, and I do recommend the movie ‘Gold’ (2022). Don’t read the reviews, just watch it!
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As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).
*I will be Twitter ‘light’ this weekend, but will likely take a look ahead to earnings Sunday evening.
**Monday evening I’ll cover the end month settlements for as many individual stocks as I can manage. That will be important, as many stocks are sounding alarm bells for February, and perspective is everything!
ps. … and to you guests… its time you subscribed!
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