Good morning. US equity futures are broadly weak, SPX -40pts, we’re set to open at 4286. USD is +0.1% at DXY 97.37. The precious metals are broadly lower, Gold -$8 (printing $1780), with Silver -0.9%. WTIC is +0.2% in the $87s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yesterday saw yet another failed bounce. The late afternoon saw weak leaning chop, as s/t momentum settled marginally negative.
Overnight futures have seen a few moderate swings. We’re set to open on a weak note, especially pressured by European markets. On balance, we should settle net lower to some degree, and there is high threat of a case of ‘rats selling into the weekend’.
Yours truly remains content to sit back, not least with the energy stocks very over-stretched.
Again, I’d keep in mind we have just two trading days left of the month, a month that is due to settle outright bearish, as February looks almost as problematic as March 2020. Disagree? I’d suggest you stare at one of those monthly charts again.
Reading around, many are increasingly twitchy about the Fed and its very slow reaction to inflation. If the next CPI print comes in hot, the market will start to panic that we’ll need regular 50bps hikes, rather than just 25bps.
SPX 3000 by mid March, with the Fed having fully spun down the printers, and then begin to raise rates? What a wild situation that would be.
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Early movers
AAPL +3.9%, post earnings jump
AG -1.1%, lower silver
AMD -2.2%
BAC -0.4%
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CAT -1.4%, EPS $2.69 vs 2.26est. Rev’ y/y +22.8% to $13.8bn vs 13.2est. Very good
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CLF -0.5%, s/t broken… with X
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COIN -0.1%
Bitcoin is -1.7% in the $36000. Another wave to around 30K is a high threat.
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CVX -3.8%, post earnings cooling
DIS -1.4%
F -1.6%, lower RIVN stock isn’t helping
FCX -1.6%, with copper -7cents to $4.34
GDX -0.9%
GOLD -0.6%
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HOOD -14.0%, printing $9.81. Post earnings horror
INTC -0.8%
KR -2.7%, Citi neutral>sell, 47>42
MRNA -2.2%, the m/t horror continues
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OXY -0.9%
PSX +1.4%, post earnings gains
PYPL -0.4%
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RIVN -2.3%, the horror continues
SLB -1.1%
SQ -1.9%
TER -2.9%, the s/t horror continues. Stifel 160>115
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TSLA -1.6%. The stock appears highly vulnerable to a bearish monthly settlement, offering 550/550 within 1-2mths.
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TLT -0.9%, bonds cool back as yields rebound
V +4.2%, post earnings jump
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VIX +6% in the 32s
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WDC -10.3%, post earnings upset
X +0.7%, post earnings gains, but highly vulnerable to turning red.
XOM -1.3%
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Overnight markets
Asian markets were very mixed, whilst European markets are ending the week on a pretty ugly note…
Japan: +2.1% at 26717
China: -1.0% at 3361
Germany: currently -2.0% at 15222
UK: currently -1.2% at 7462
Russia: currently +1.2% at 1415.
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I was awoken at 3.11am EST. Not great, but there is going to be an end to this… eventually.
Today will be an open day, with my posts available to all. Its the best (and at zero cost) advertising I can get. I just hope the market is dynamic to the downside… as who doesn’t like some drama? Have a good Friday.