Month: November 2021

Bits and pieces to wrap up November

It was a mixed month for US equities, SPX -38pts (0.8%) to 4567, with the Transports -63pts (0.4%) to 15843. WTIC imploded -$17.39 (20.8%) to $66.18. Copper cooled by -9cents (2.0%) to $4.28. The USD gained +189bps to DXY 96.01. The US 10yr yield cooled by -12bps to 1.43%.

SPX, monthly

Trans, monthly

WTIC, monthly

Copper, monthly

USD, monthly

US 10yr yield, monthly

Summary

Equities: The SPX printed a new hist’ high of 4743, but the month ended on a rough note. The November candle is spiky on the upper side, which bodes problematic… at least for early December. I’d note the 10MA at 4286, and there should be no general alarm bells unless that is broken and held below.

Meanwhile, the ‘old leader’ – Transports, broke a new hist’ high of 18246, however I’d keep in mind the index spike was due to a hyper spike within the component of Avis (CAR). The index/sector is still m/t bullish.

WTIC: printing a low of $64.43 into end month, for what has been the most bearish month since March 2020. I’d note the settlement below the 10MA ($69.13), which has to be seen as (at least) s/t problematic. Next support 61/60s.

Copper: a surprisingly narrow range month, settling at $4.28. Monthly momentum threatens to turn negative within 1-2 months. The commodity bulls should look to see copper resume higher before year end. Otherwise… a break under psy’ $4 would offer the low $3s.

USD: the dollar strengthened for the 7th month of 11, breaking a new cycle high of 96.94. The king of FIAT land is comfortably holding above the monthly 10MA, with next resistance of the upper bollinger in the 98s. The performance is impressive, although this is broadly year SEVEN of an 88-103 range.

Bonds/yields: bonds climbed… as yields cooled back. Natural target for the US 10yr yield remains 2.25%, as 2022 offers 1-2 rate hikes.
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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu’, construction, EIA Pet’, Fed Beige book (2pm)

Earnings: CRWD, SNOW, OKTA, SPLK, FIVE, VEEV, PVH
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The Cramer started trending on Twitter in AH…

Its not surprising, but it is disturbing to see ANY mention of dragging in the military. This is one of the final stages before they proceed door to door with guns, against ‘the resistance’.

The fact he is suggesting people should appeal as ‘conscientious objectors’, is outrageous. He has seemingly ZERO concern that a number of people are being injured and dying from the various treatments.

Even if you believe that number is a statistical rounding error, its still grossly unethical to force ANY treatment on someone who simply doesn’t want it.

The Cramer is obviously mostly just pissed that equities have got whacked again, partly due to Omicron. Again… Cramer’s demands for increasing the pressure on the unvaxxed, is mostly driven by financial concerns, rather than giving a damn about the health of others.

I have no regret in hoping all those who support such medical tyranny, take ALL the boosters, which I expect to be the literal nail in the coffin, of many of those who keep injecting themselves with mRNA packets, that instruct their bodies to produce the poison of the spike proteins.

Gods help the resistance, and may we last long enough to see the ‘big bad’, which will cleanse away the psychotics who have long since torched the constitution and bill of rights.

A related note from Heying and Weinstein…

It is indeed very difficult to live within a society which has turned sociopathic. There is no logical reasoning/discussion, merely policy based on fear, with the political/societal/financial elite swayed to support whatever policy gives them ever more influence and financial power.
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Ohh, and here in the UK…

I never liked Carr. He is likely just playing along to get along. If I’m right… he won’t be around much beyond 2023 or so.

I will end with this…

I can understand if some of Carlin’s language annoys you. What matters is this guy did give a damn about the ‘average Joe’. He cared.  Do you think Carr or Cramer give a damn about anyone?
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One month left

We’ve just 22 trading days left of the year, as 2022 is not far away. Yours truly is increasingly thinking about what I want to write (both public and privately) in terms of the 2022 outlook.

Then there is the issue of Twitter. The platform continues to be increasingly problematic. Its not just the virus censorship issue, but its spreading to other things such as climatology. If I’ve any sense I will find a couple of other homes, and at least use them as backups in case I ever get the boot.

For yours truly… and I guess some of you, it was a lousy end to the month. Yet broadly… the US equity market remains m/t bullish. Considering the economy (still not recessionary), the outlook for inflation, and ongoing supply chain constraints, I have to remain on the buy side… at least into the early spring.

Goodnight from London