Equities ended the week on a net bullish note, the SPX breaking a new hist’ high of 4559, if settling -4pts (0.1%) to 4544, which made for a net weekly gain of +73pts (1.6%). Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$1.26 (1.5%) to $83.76, which made for a net weekly gain of +$2.03 (2.5%).
sp’weekly1b
WTIC weekly
Summary
SPX: a third consecutive net weekly gain. Momentum ticked upward for a second week, and will be prone to turning positive in the first week of November… when QE taper is set to be announced. I’d note the 10MA at 4459, which will be new support… in any cooling next week. Indeed, most natural target are the 4450s, before resuming upward.
WTIC: a NINTH consecutive net weekly gain, printing a new seven year high of $83.96. RSI 72s… we’re on the high side, and some cooling to 77/76s would not be a surprise within 1-2 weeks. Absolutely m/t bullish, as giant psy’ $100 remains realistic before end year.
I’m a little anxious to get back aboard OXY, SLB, MRO, RIG, and KMI, before they run away from me!
—
Dear Subscriber
Some perspective: SPX, monthly1b
Having taken out last month’s low of 4305, and breaking last month’s high of 4545, October’s candle (if briefly) was of the ‘bullish engulfing’ type, and bodes especially bullish for the short/mid term.
To be clear, that sure doesn’t mean we can’t see some sig’ cooling ahead of Halloween, or early November. However, it does mean that November should see net monthly gains of some degree.
–
Meanwhile, over at Print Central…
A net weekly change of +$84.0bn, taking the balance sheet to a new record of $8.565trn. Even once QE taper begins… that will still result in NET increases for the balance into spring/summer 2022. Indeed, we can expect $9trn within 3-4months.
I’d keep in mind, the next FOMC announcement will be Wed’ Nov’3rd, when we can expect QE taper to be announced. No rate hikes can be expected until the Printers are fully spun down.
To be clear, I do NOT fear the taper. Hell, I don’t even fear rate hikes. The latter are inherently bullish, especially for the financials.
It remains (ironically) the case that the ultimate equity sell signal is when the Fed CUT rates. I have pointed out that ‘little quirk’ for many years, but most still overlook or dismiss it.
–
C19 chatter…
Ms. Quick of CNBC, with Surgeon General Dr Murthy. Lets be clear… CNBC have a business relationship with Pfizer, and are actively advertising, and running endless pro-VAX articles. If you think CNBC are able to offer an unbiased opinion on the great ‘vax’ debate, I’ve a condo on the moon to sell you.
The latest data…
The issue of ‘interchangeable’, or ‘mix and match’ is dubious. Again, we have no mid/long term data on this. Maybe it won’t be a significant problem… maybe it will.
Whilst yours truly doesn’t own a DeLorean, neither does CNBC, the FDA, CDC, PFE, MRNA, or JNJ. Only time will tell… how this bizarre period in human history ends.
—
Interesting chatter from the Brand of the UK, on Rogan and CNN. The politicisation/editorial nature of the mainstream media, can only be expected to worsen in 2022.
–
The Celente remains ever more furious about almost everything. I guess I should add the disclaimer ‘not for the faint hearted’.
—
Brad is indicative of increasing background chatter on gold and silver. For now, the m/t trend is STILL bearish, but that does appear set to formally change within the next few weeks. I just need to see Gold >$1837s and Silver >$25s.
As ever, I don’t agree with everything he (or anyone else I highlight) says, but I think he does speak for a community that are preparing on the valid concern of supply chain problems.
I have to expect power – both electric AND Nat’ gas problems in the UK this winter. I just hope any blackouts won’t last more than 3-6 hours. Anything more than that… and it would be a problem.
–
The weekend
Well, its time to rest… and much rest I need, with some sideline entertainment of Gold Rush, Foundation, and maybe re-watch Dune.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
—
The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).