It was a bearish month for equities, SPX -215pts (4.8%) to 4307, with the Transports -659pts (4.5%) to 14002. WTIC soared by +$6.53 (9.5%) to $75.03. Copper cooled by -29cents (6.5%) to $4.09. The USD strengthened by +160bps to DXY 94.24. The US 10yr yield climbed by +22bps to 1.52%.
SPX, monthly
Trans, monthly
WTIC, monthly
Copper, monthly
USD, monthly
US 10yr yield, monthly
Summary
Equities: The SPX printed a new hist’ high of 4545, but September ended on a pretty ugly note, with a bearish engulfing candle, which bodes distinctly problematic for October. I would note the 10MA at 4116, which will likely jump/adjust to the 4150/75s with the Oct’1st open.
The ‘old leader’ – Transports settled under the 10MA for the first time since June 2020, and it bodes very problematic in the near term. Next major support 13200/12900.
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WTIC: A very powerful month for oil, and its even more impressive when you consider the weak main market, and the broadly stronger dollar. A push above the key $77.00 threshold is clearly realistic in October, and then a grander move to giant psy’ $100.
Copper: lower for the third month of four, if still settling above key price threshold. Commodity bulls can argue price structure is a bull flag.
USD: the dollar climbed for the third month of four, settling in the low 94s, the highest monthly settlement since July 2020. Momentum ticked upward, having turned positive. Its effectively year seven stuck within the 88/103 zone.
Bonds/yields: Bond yields climbed for a consecutive second month. Price structure of a bull flag is arguably playing out. Natural target is 2.25%. So long as the move is slow/steady, the equity market should tolerate it.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see PMI/ISM manu’, construction, consumer sent’
Event: new month/quarter, we could expect some degree of institutional buying.
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Final note
I’ve seen some crazy propaganda from Twitter since early 2020, but this is possibly the most contemptible…
This is a gods damn LIE, as the treatments only provoke an immune response to the spike proteins. They don’t immunise against the full virus. Those who recover, have natural immunity, which is unquestionably far superior to any of the treatments.
Remember how I recently noted the hashtag #naturalimmunity is now blocked on FB/Instagram?
This ongoing type of thing is beyond outrageous. In association with Google/Youtube and Facebook, Twitter is pushing a FALSE narrative, as its being paid by big pharma’ and various Govt’ regimes.
I can only hope everyone involved is eventually rounded up, put on trial, and swings for it. My estimation of a ‘justice is served’ outcome is 3%. I hope I’m wrong.
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The ultimate asset class is land, always has been, and always will be.
Goodnight from London