It was day of considerable minor chop until the FOMC minutes, with the SPX spiraling to 4397, and settling -47pts (1.1%) to 4400. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$1.38 (2.1%) to $65.21.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
sp: First, having broken below last week’s low of 4424, we now have a bearish engulfing candle. If this week settles <4424 (<4400 to be decisive), it will bode very problematic for next week, when the monetary maniacs are meeting at Jackson Hole (Aug’26-28).
wtic: last week’s low of $65.15 was broken in the late afternoon, and that offers next price cluster support of 63/60 zone. Oil is cyclically low, having cooled from $76.98.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual Weekly jobs, Phil’ fed, and leading indicators.
Earnings: M, KSS, BILI, EL, TPR, AMAT, ROST
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PF chart of the day
Computer has a bullish target of the $519s… roughly equating to spx 5100.
Some perspective, SPX, monthly
So… Monday saw a new hist’ high of 4480. Tuesday and today saw broad weakness… printing 4397. Two down days… and the crash callers are now popping Champaign? I’d guess a few are this Wednesday evening.
I’d merely counter to them… go stare at the above chart for a good hour or two. Sure… first m/t support is not until around psy’4K, where the 10MA is now lurking.
Yours truly still sees the market holding together, with a run to the 4900/5100 zone… before such a correction. I will merely add, the ‘folks’ at Jackson Hole next week had better ‘inspire’ the market, or it’ll be an ugly drop ahead of the Labor day break. I’d accept that considering the Afghanistan debacle, it’d kinda be fitting.
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Final note…
C19 chatter
He remains mad as hell, and he is only getting madder
The Celente remains one of the few calling it for what it is. There is much to be said for the political atheists out there, of which you should know I am one.
… and we have Dore highlighting Paul…
I remember watching Ron Paul’s speech a decade ago. It was absolutely crystal clear what was ahead, as the war machine increasingly drives policy.
Notably, not only does the military industrial complex drive policy, but now we have the even more powerful ‘big pharma’, who will never want the societal hysteria… or the virus itself, to ever stop.
Those two corporate arms are frankly terrifying, and it did make me wonder what a third might be, but I can’t think of one.
Regardless of that… I hope you are fine.
Goodnight from London