First, I hope your weekend will be fine. The following would normally have been posted late Friday, but I was tired, and here it is instead!
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It was a mixed month for US equities, Nasdaq comp’ +168pts (1.2%) to 14672, with the Transports -419pts (2.8%) to 14460. WTIC +48cents (0.6%) to $73.95. Copper +19cents (4.5%) to $4.48. The USD weakened by -24bps to DXY 92.19. The US 10yr yield cooled by -21bps to 1.24%.
Nasdaq comp’, monthly
Trans, monthly
WTIC, monthly
Copper, monthly
USD, monthly
US 10yr yield, monthly
Summary
Equities: The Nasdaq comp’ broke a new historic high, but the Transports settled significantly lower for a second month. Bulls could certainly argue its just sector rotation. All six of the US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.
WTIC: Oil climbed for a fourth consecutive month, breaking a new cycle high of $76.98. Eventual price action above the $77.00 threshold will be decisive, and offer open air to giant psy’ $100. If correct, monstrous implications for the related energy stocks, not least XOM, CVX, and the oil/gas serv’ OXY, SLB, MRO, RIG.
Copper: settling powerfully higher, as the m/t trend remains bullish. Psy’ $5.00 looks viable, if not probable within August. Key stocks: FCX, SCCO, TECK, VALE.
USD: Printing 93.19, if cooling back to settle a little lower. A second monthly settlement above the 10MA. Effectively year SEVEN of broad chop, resistance psy’ 100, with 88s support. Monthly momentum will be prone to turning positive in August or September.
Bonds/yields: yields cooled for a fourth consecutive month, with the US 10yr printing 1.19%. Bond bears/yield bulls can still argue its just a retrace of the massive ramp from the July 2020 low of 0.52% to 1.74%. I have to expect renewed upside in yields, with natural target of 2.25%.
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Other things….
Mr Dore on looming evictions…
Regardless of whether you support the rule that prevented property owners from kicking out delinquent renters doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that we’re set to see millions of families getting kicked out. That can’t possibly be anything but an economic drag that will stretch into 2022.
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C19 chatter…
NSFW, but highly recommended…
It only took a few days, and Rappaport is a grade ‘A’ example of many out there, who has gone from slamming those reluctant to get the treatment, only to be utterly dismayed seeing Fauci, CNN and FOX highlighting that the vaxxed are spreading C19.
Even Twitter is highlighting this…
Indeed, so many who took a stance are being whipsawed. On one level its amusing, on another…. its just… sad.
If I’m right about ‘the big bad’, whether its later this year, or 2022, it will be real interesting to see how the sheep/serfs react.
Of course, lets be clear, for most… it was a choice. Yes, some of them were under significant duress, especially from employers or government, but still… it was a CHOICE.
With all drugs and medical treatments, there are risks. Sometimes its known, and sometimes… not. It remains the case we have ZERO longitudinal data, and for me, that is the core issue. To the average sheep/serf, most of them wouldn’t even be able to spell the L word, never mind define it.
Regardless of all that… I do wish you a good weekend.
yours… Philip… still typing on a Saturday.
ps. I’m working on my little ‘Twitter project’ this weekend. Maybe it’ll amount to nothing. Or perhaps… it will 🙂