It was a bullish month for most US equity indexes, SPX +22pts (0.5%) to 4204, the Nasdaq comp’ -213pts (1.5%) to 13748, with the Transports +403pts (2.6%). WTIC +$2.74 (4.3%) to $66.32. Copper +21cents (4.7%) to $4.68. The USD weakened by -128bps to DXY 89.99. The US 10yr cooled by -7bps to 1.58%.
SPX, monthly
Nasdaq comp’, monthly
Trans, monthly
WTIC, monthly
Copper, monthly
USD, monthly
US 10yr yield, monthly
Summary
Equities: With the SPX, Dow, NYSE comp’, and Transports breaking new historic highs, it has to be seen as a net bullish month. Yes, the Nasdaq comp’ and R2K are struggling, but not every index has to break a new hist’ high every single month, right?
Equity bulls need have no concerns unless the monthly 10MA is lost, and all SIX indexes remain above their respective monthly 10MA. Whilst I’m seeking a washout to around sp’4000, that is a small move in the scheme of things, and I have to expect new historic highs in June, or a more viable July.
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Commodities: oil climbed for the sixth month of seven, coming close to breaking above the March high. S/t vulnerable with the main market, but the 75/76s look due within June/July. Copper broke a new hist’ high of $4.89, if cooling back a little. Psy’ $5.00 looks viable within June/July.
USD: A second consecutive net monthly decline for the king of FIAT land. The monthly 10MA is broadly holding as resistance. The 88s remain massively important. Any price action in the 87s would merit alarm bells, and offer a spiral down to red zone support of 80-78.
Bonds/yields: yields cooled for a second month, but the decline was minor. Multi-month price structure offers a bull flag. Big target is key price threshold of 2.25%, where I would expect the fed to implement yield curve controls. That won’t do anything to help cool inflation, but hey… print central expect it to be ‘transitory’, so why worry?
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A note on crypto
Its been a few weeks since I have even looked at Litecoin. I traded (briefly) in mid April, buying around $263, and bailing around $273. So… I see it printed the $118s (matching the Jan’ low), and its not having such a great Friday. Sub $100 this weekend?
Yours truly remains content to watch what is inherently worthless garbage from the sidelines. Ongoing price action is increasingly wild, as it makes the Tulip bubble look respectable.
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C19 chatter
The following is worth checking…
Indeed, Fauci… along with a team from big pharma’, have a history of ‘gain of function’ research. He even accepted in 2012 there was a risk of it leading to a pandemic, or being used for bio-terrorism.
I have little hope the guy will meet justice in this timeline. Hell, its almost a wonder he hasn’t already been awarded the congressional medal of honor. Or did that event happen, and I missed it?*
*Whilst my work entails keeping up to date with the news, there have been a number of times since spring 2020, when I have had to ignore it… if only briefly, to hold onto any semblance of sanity.
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The long weekend
We have a three day break, offering some time to rest, and work on some of our personal projects. Monday is Memorial day, and some thought to the fallen of the US military will be merited.
Yours truly needs to make some further progress with lawsuit’1, if I’m to justify resuming Twitter next week. If I do make some progress, I might appear as early as Monday to cover some of the end month individual stock settlements.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, enjoy the long weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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*The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail five of the US equity indexes.
**The next post on this page will be the pre-market brief, 8.30am, Tuesday June 1st.