It was a bullish month for US equities, SPX +161pts (4.2%) to 3973, with the Transports +1300pts (9.7%) to 14631. WTIC cooled by -$2.34 (3.8%) to $59.16. Copper declined by -10cents (2.4%) to $4.00. The USD climbed +235bps to DXY 93.24. The US 10yr yield climbed +30bps to 1.74%.
SPX, monthly
Trans, monthly
WTIC, monthly
Copper, monthly
USD, monthly
US 10yr yield, monthly
Summary
Equities: on any basis, it was a very bullish month for US equities with the SPX, Dow, NYSE comp’, R2K, and Transports breaking new historic highs. The m/t trend remains powerfully bullish, with April offering further upside.
WTIC/Copper: it was a mixed month for oil, printing a new cycle high of the $67s but cooling to the $57s. Copper saw considerable chop, and appropriately settling at psy’ $4.00. The stronger dollar certainly didn’t help commodities. Broadly though, WTIC appears on track for next target of $75/76s in May, with Copper set to break the 2011 hist’ high of $4.65.
USD: The dollar climbed for a third consecutive month, with a net March gain of a very significant +2.6%. The March settlement was rather decisively above the monthly 10MA, the first such close since May 2020. Next resistance are the 95s.
More broadly, I still expect an eventual loss of the key 88s, which will offer 80/78. If the latter is seen, it would be extremely bullish for most asset classes, but especially commodities.
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Bond yields: yields climbed for the sixth month of eight, with the US 10yr settling at 1.74%. Next resistance is the psy’2.00-2.25% zone, which appears a given within this summer.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see Weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu’, construction, vehicle sales
Earnings: KMX
Event: As Friday will be CLOSED, once the econ-data is out of the way, I would expect considerable minor chop on light volume. With the jobs data due early Friday, its possible we might see a mild case of ‘rats selling into the long weekend’.
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Final note…
Its been a busy day, so I’ll keep this short…
Denniger’s latest…
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=241908
It does appear to be the case that those significantly overweight are those highest at risk. Further, low Vitamin D levels are highly correlated (85% or so) with those taken into hospital.
The societal restrictions have ironically lead to most being less active, with lower exposure to sunlight. Someone will write an amazing book… or even a (non Hollywood) film/documentary about all of this one day.
Goodnight from London
Yours… wondering what April fools day will bring